The USA is losing to China in Asia-Pacific influence

DAVID GONOL

THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION is a very strategic area in this 21st century as the world’s balance of economic and political power shifts.

Many nations in the region are taking the lead as the world seeks economic recovery after 2008’s financial crisis. Most notable is China. Its unprecedented economic growth has spurred its military growth and its influence in the region.

Because no other nation in the region or elsewhere has given China much of a challenge over the last two decades, its economic and military growth have been spectacular.

Only the US could have challenged China’s growth and influence in the region but, for the last two decades, the US was so preoccupied with the former USSR and then the crisis in the Middle East that it seemed to forget China and, apart from Afghanistan, the region.

So China grew to become a world power without opposition. Many now come to agree that China has attained superpower status peacefully.

 The first time the US came to terms with the reality in the Asia-Pacific region was in 2008 when Obama was elected. By then the US was so committed to the Middle East that the Obama administration could not make any sudden and drastic policy changes.

However, after much consideration, the US recently declared its foreign policy of ‘pivot’ to the Asia-Pacific. Soon after, the US started to implement this new policy by diverting about 60% of its navy to the Pacific.

One action was to open a US marine base in Australia in 2011; another has been Obama’s re-energised quest to forge new and reinforce old relationships with nations in the region. This included Obama’s visit to Myanmar late last year.

Despite the genuine efforts of the US to compete for influence in the region with China, I do not perceive US strategy as being effective.

How I see it is that the US is using the same techniques it used during the cold war with the USSR. That is, the US is responding militarily to compete with China by setting up bases in the region, when in fact China’s real source influence is its vibrant economy.

Further, it appears that the US pivoted to the Asia-Pacific a decade late. It would have been better if the US pivoted to the region in the year 2000 when Bush was in power.

China appears to have learnt its lessons well from the USA-USSR cold war. The US is responding to China’s ever-growing influence militarily just like it did during cold war but China is not so much concerned about that.

Instead it is adamant to continue to advance economically and overtake the US as the world’s number one economy within the next two decades.

Countries do not need war but they do need economic prosperity. They want to lead their population out of poverty. That is an inherent desire of all nations.

So they are willing to establish relationships with any country that can promise them the universal goal – prosperity.

Since China is giving a lot of aid and making a lot of investments in the region, including papua New Guinea and the smaller Pacific Island nations, its presence is more tangible than that of the US.

The US should include in its Asia-Pacific pivot policy not only military but economic aspects. It would be better if the US promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership and such similar agendas.

Unless the US’s Asia-Pacific pivot policy is expanded to include economic aspects, more countries will be drawn towards China’s sphere of influence.

Comments

[Johnny Blades]

This is hardly a new issue, the trend's been happening for a while, although if anything the US has gained back a little bit of ground lately with its recent efforts in the Pacific.

I think the basic tenet of David's article is right although I would be cautious about talking up the agenda of the Trans Pacific Partnership. NZers for one are concerned about the way the TPP gives foreign investors too much power, sovereignty issues abound. This type of "free trade" deal sounds like the last thing Pacific island countries need.

Pacific regional countries need to be very cautious

[Corney K. Alone]

A house divided against itself shall fall. This is a golden law.
There’s no lecture of world history required to articulate and drive this idea home.

I have never seen unconscionable partisanship and vitriol just for the sake of political point scoring by the Republicans of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

There was an air of worldwide policy re-set and optimism when the fruits of democracy was realised in a fringe community organiser-cum do-good mixed raced President. There is still hope.

The Democrats led by the POTUS (President Obama) was laser focused to kick start the ailing economy which was decimated by the reckless behavior of the Wall Street Gamblers.

I have watched with disdain how the Jobs Act was rubbished by the Republicans (GOPs) and many other policies to kick start its economy back home – that would have no doubt accelerated its recovery process after 2008’s financial disaster.

The sheer disrespect for Barack Obama by particularly older generations of white so-called Christian leaning groups has been and is hard to fathom.

The tasteless crusade led by GOP Senate Leader (Mitch McConnell) of making Barack Obama a one-term President by doing everything in their stale and worn out politics of saying NO to every policy initiatives has outlived its misguided goal.

A good advise to the US House of Representatives and the Senate is to wake up, smell the coffee and embrace bi-partisanship for once.

We still treasure the noble goodies of democracy but the package through which it is delivered and seen to be exercised especially within the Melanesian context of freedom for one of our own brothers (West Papua) is something we're paying closer attention now.

Re-engagement policy ideas would be nice to be accommodated to through more educational fellowships and even setting up remote campuses of MIT, Harvard, Yale, Princeton and the like within Papua New Guinea and rest of the Pacific would be one tangible way to arrest this slippage.

We have super speed internet facilities available in Port Moresby, Lae, Madang and soon the Highlands Provinces of Papua New Guinea.

And by the way, we're not too far off from Guam.
__________

By the way, you can read Corney's rivetting life story in PNG Attitude on Wednesday morning, 'From arse grass to corporate sales executive'. Don't miss it - KJ

[Mrs Barbara Short]

Many people have written very thought-provoking comments on this article by David Gonol. They obviously have done a lot of study of international relationships over the past few years.

As a non-academic I have been quietly observing the growing influence of Asians in Australia. I live in a suburb of Sydney now popular with the Chinese and Korean people who have moved into Australia.

I have a Vietnamese friend who is also watching the growth of China around the world.

I recently returned from a long trip through NSW and Victoria and found the Chinese are busy growing wheat out in the Tocumwal region.

Today I was very impressed by an interview done by Jim Middleton of a Chinese lady called Wu Qing on the ABC's Asia/Pacific Focus.

After Australia pulled out of PNG the people were left with a democracy and a constitution which we felt should have allowed the country to progress successfully. But things have not gone as well as many of us had hoped.

I can't remember much direct American influence in PNG during my time there. But I gather that the Chinese influence has grown since the Australians left.

The interview this morning reminded us that China is not a democracy. It does not have the Freedom of the Judiciary, it does not have the separation of the Judiciary and the Government, it doesn't have Freedom of the Press, it needs a Constitional Court that can investigate matters, there is much corruption, recently people who were asking that members of parliament declare their business interest were punished, women are very suppressed etc etc

I realize that some PNG people have been to China and have done various courses and have a good understanding of China. I hope the government of PNG will be careful when dealing with China.

Our PM will be visiting soon. She has evidently been a great hit in China and I'm sure she would have a few clues as to the correct relationships we should all have to the Chinese.

China is saying some very good things re striving for peace in the world but PNG people need to realize who they are dealing with.

[Thomas Tibong]

China has a matured political leadership. Its people becomes more important than causing troubles around everyone's backyard. He has seen enough of wars, revolutions and fascism and cannot afford to sacrifice its people's life and economy.

His goal is to develop its economy through genuine partnership with those countries with resources he needs in a win-win developmental co-operation and partnership which US does not do well in this regard.

China believes in its economic development whilst US is on a spending spree waging wars everywhere giving breathing space for China's rise. He believes economic development will shoulder its security aspirations.

China will always use diplomacy to iron out security issues in the region. He will always maintain defensive at strategic level whilst maintaining offensive at the operational and tactical levels as its Chairman Mao coined "Stand for active defence and oppose passive defence".

It means be ready at all times, not just defend when it comes. With that, China is a developing country and he respect others and wants to foster cordial relations and assist other developing countries develop too in all aspects of developments.

China wins the respect of most developing countries due to its mature leadership and its current investment in infrastructure and economic activities in Pacific, Carribean and African states and Middle & Central Asia as well as SE Asia.

[Obed Ikupu]

Influencing others has been the trend in global dominance since the avatars and martyrs spoke of the elite been the chosen to drive a global community reserved for high quality living standards and higher income revenues.

Liberal Democracy as been the illusive method used by the US for conglomorates and capitalist tends to be more enticing then the free market chinese trend of commercialization and collective wealth.

Currency values and foreign exchanges have been political commodities for the US since its upper hand in foreign interests.

The US believes that with high valued currencies alot can be bought for a surplus of goods and services.

Papua New Guinea aligning its relations with IMF, World Bank and other financial non-state entities of western socio-economics and international political economics by which US tends to dominate its influence leaves us a more chance of buying more then we want with high currencies.

Selling stuff to nations with high currencies and then buying stuff from nations with low currencies distributes wealth more faster and quicker.

This by analysis leaves us a date set at 2019 when "The Rise of PNG" in the Oceanic region is a course taken in the PNG Studies Department.

[Newman Oki]

The rise of China is indeed creating an atmosphere of the Great Dragon. In Chinese legend, the dragon symbolizes power, strength and good luck.

With the current economic, political and social trend that China is heading towards, it is pretty obvious that most countries, especially the USA, are begining to detest very greatly.

According to Kishore Mahbubani's article entitled 'While America Slept', if China passes the US in the next decade or two, it will be the first time in two centuries that a non-western power has emerged as No 1.

This notion is becoming an headache and a constant threat to the United States, especially when its national security is at stake.

Furthermore, the US is not buying China's peaceful rising ideas, and they have a point because all human beings are egoistic and self-seeking.

In fact, one of America's new foreign policies under its National Interest Strategy in the Asia Pacific region is to increase economic activities to counter China's influence.

Just exactly what intentions the Chinese might have behind their rapid growth and influence in Asia and other parts of the world cannot be fully understood.

The fact remains that, given the current trend with China, it is very obvious that it may become the next world superpower.

[Talsha Bannick]

The US is in a situation where it is threatened by China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Today, China is rated as the world's second leading nation in terms of its economy and in the near future, it is likely that China is going to beat the US and become the world's leading nation.

It can be seen that the US is not really conscious about others, all they care about is themselves and their interests. Because if they were interested in the Asia-Pacific, they would have made a move for it a decade ago. They would have made a move for it a decade ago.

Instead there were busy fighting in the middle-east because they need oil and it is found there. They are only showing interest in the Asia-Pacific becase China is here also.

What the US always tries to do is that, it like to keep everyone under him. However, that is not the case anymore since the developing nations are looking up to China to meet their demands.

[Samuel Bariasi]

China and the US are very different when it comes to spreading their influence. One's ideologies are opposingly in contrast to the other.

I see that the US has no particular interest in the Asia-Pacific region, it has other major issues to deal with such as the war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Because he is a big boy in the game, his main worry is to influence other countries so that they can behave like him.

With the mission of spreading democracy and maintaining peace through out the globe, the US in many cases has engaged in mostly military approaches rather than other peaceful means.

It is also obvious that the US only interferes in cases where it sees that it can benefit. What about help liberate our West Papuan brothers? What about helping in military ways to end the crisis in Syria?

What about helping the French forces and the Mali troops eliminating the radical muslims im Mali? The US does not want to do anything about about these because these are not going to be beneficial to it. So what about the mission of maintaing peace?

China has a policy where it is more interested in engaging in trade and other bilateral and multilateral relations. China does not want to interfere with foreign countries' internal affairs but it is more interested in spreading their influence in a more economic manner; which is in contrast to the US where sometimes it undermines the sovereignty of other nations when interfering in internal state affairs.

I do not see the US as having a major interest in our Asia-Pacific region but because it sees that China is rising, it would want to hamper China's progress in influencing other countries in the region. This is solely because China is not a democratic country.

What good has the US done to the region? It is only there to provide security, which is not a major need at the moment because the region is generally at peace. Compared to the US, China has helped economically many countries in the region and that is evident.

With the US so eager in strengthening its military presence the Asia-Pacific region, I would like to make a statement: "Peace cannot be achieved through violence, it can only be attained through understanding" - Albert Einstein

[Jeffery Johannes]

China was look for a single gap to overtake the US, and that gap was 9/11.

After 9/11, the US could hear China's footsteps right behind her. This sound was a sign of threat and the rise of China.

I am not sure about other states in the Asia-Pacific region, but according to my research Samoa and Papua New Guinea are dominated by China; not only China but Asia as a whole.

I hardly see Americans, only a handful in these two countries, the ratio for Asians to Americans will be 25:1. The overtaking will be pretty soon.

[David Gonol]

The US has grown to become the leader of the whole world. With such status comes the responsibility to attend to the needs of the whole whereas China only has its economic interests to attend to.

So if the US wants to challenge China's growing power, it should challenge it from the economic point of view more than from military point of view. This is simply because China is not yet a military might yet.

However, there exists a problem which places the US in a disadvantaged position, and that is its economic crisis. China, on the other hand, has two advantages which project it to become the next world power after the US because of its vibrant economy and its political will and determination to becoming the next world power.

No wonder there is a saying that states where there is will there is a way!

[Issac Givolo]

PNG is one of the eight developing nations that officially recognized China.

Therefore its economic expansion to PNG and other seven states (Cook Islands, Federated states of Micronesia, Fiji,Niue, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu) is more tangible by which the Westerners view it as a way of replacing their (USA and it allies) influence in the region and locking up of natural resources.

[Bernard Yegiora]

Welcome back Francis.

The 'Super power' tag is something the Chinese do not like. They see themselves differently as mentioned by Francis.

They are part of the new global middle class consisting of countries like Brazil, Russia and India. The correct name given to their multilateral group is BRIC.

China's foreign policy is the complete opposite of the US foreign policy. They seek development and cooperation whereas the US is focused on maintaining its grip on global power with the help of its allies via treaties like NATO and ANZUS.

[Francis Hualupmomi]

China is not a superpower at this stage, it's still a developing country. The US still maintains hegemonic supremacy. China, correctly, resembles growing economic power status.

[Jeff Febi]

This kind of simple yet clear and precise writing makes a gloomy day sweet.

The US is playing catch-up. The Pacific has moved on and has embraced China as a partner in development with all her down-sides.

It may soon be China's home away from home.