Is Rev Malthus’s theory relevant to PNG?

BY PAUL OATES

MORE THAN 200 years ago, the Rev Thomas Malthus wrote about the dangers of population growth in his famous treatise, An essay on the principle of population (1798). 

Malthus maintained that one need only look at human history to understand that populations will eventually outstrip the means to maintain themselves. "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man", he wrote.

Living at a time of strife and turmoil due to the Industrial Revolution, the French Revolution and the American Revolution, Malthus took a pragmatic view of the world and warfare, famine and disease.

Given that one cannot change human nature, as a clergyman Malthus believed the perils of overpopulation were divinely imposed to promote ‘virtuous behaviour’.

The contentious Corn Laws had been introduced to protect British agriculture but had impacted severely on the price of food. There was plenty of labour and wages fell to the point where it was again economical to grow more food, whereupon the cost of food dropped.

However a never ending cycle appeared to be inevitable. Once food prices were reduced, the population increased past the point where food again became scarce. Then the population diminished through misery and hunger.

PNG’s population of nearly seven million has doubled over the last 30 years and is set to double again. Some people are now expressing doubts as to the nation’s ability to sustain future population growth when traditional methods of food production cannot produce large surpluses.

The imminent introduction of profits from the sale of LNG may well be pushing rental prices in Moresby through the proverbial roof. Yet this is another example of local supply and demand.

If the price of food also increases due to demand outstripping supply, one could expect further adverse social pressures on those who can least afford them.

Perhaps the new PNG government should try not to be blinded by the glow from the LNG project. Planning for PNG’s future is now more important than ever.